quick and easy

So after cleaning my driveway 3 time in the last 30 hours I'm finally ready to take a break and ski. This last storm total came in at about 36 inches of right side up snow (the opposite of upsidedown). To start a quick disclaimer, I have NOT been in the backcountry for a week and I haven't been keeping up on my avalanche danger forecasts. That being said I am very supprised about Bruce's forcast today of moderate with pockets of considerable. One of the most important things, if not THE most important thing in avalanche forcasting is RATE of loading of the old snow. AGAIN I wasn't following the snowtells but my driveway would tell you that there were times when it was accumulating at upwards of 1 inch per hour, with very high densities. (almost slush, as my snowthrower was not happy about it) I would think that the sensitivity of those old hard slab sitting on facets would have skyrocketed. So I will still be weary of the conditions today, more so than I am told I should. That being said, the reason Bruce came up with the forecast is because of a few things, 1) in the deep snow area's the slab has become very large (over 90 cm) and well consolidated (due to the heat, and long time between snow). The deeper the slab, the stronger it gets. 2) the facets are starting to round out way down there and gain strength. 3)the temperature started warm and slowly cooled. Remember that thin temperature crust at almost all altitudes? Well it could have been very mean, unless you heat it up, then start covering it with snow and slowly cool it so the new snow consolidates well to it. This is exactly what happened. Another thought was those possible areas of surface hoar that could have formed during the inversion. Two things, first, it was pretty warm during that time (less likely to form), and it has been windy, rainy and warm since-- all things that destroy surface hoar. Good news for us. The question will be two fold: 1) will the large slab strenth outweigh the rapid increase in water weight? and 2)will the old large slide paths from earlier this season have a deep enough slab to have the strength to deal with the new rapid loading. (this is the more important question) So I would be trying to stay out o those old paths and especially away from the trigger zones (like rock bands, covered shrubery, anything that brings the heat up from the ground to create a small pocket of facets). Check out Bruces snow pit video at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxV5gkQvi6w

Rain rain, and more rain

The avalanche danger today is CONSIDERABLE today which means we should all get out and ski! Wait know, actually more avalanche fatalities happen when its CONSIDERABLE then High or Extreme because more people go out and usually take bigger risks than they should. This picture on the left is of a crown line (the point of separation from the sliding slab and the not sliding slab) from a very hard wind slab that I sent last year in the powder parks with an average slope angle of 28 degrees. Even at such a low angle and a very slow speed this particular slab went crashing into the aspens below sounding something like a D-10 bulldoser making a road.

Check out the full report on todays danger at:
http://utahavalanchecenter.org/advisory/slc

I also want include a exerpt from todays post that clearly shows the point previously stated, here it is:
"While many slopes were skied, boarded and snowmobiled uneventfully yesterday, there were at least 4 backcountry incidents. In the Granny Chute of Wolverine Cirque, the 3rd ski cut popped out 6 to 12 inch deep new snow slab about 200ft wide (10,600, N facing, not caught). In a steeper section of Hide-a-way Park (the ridge between Days and Silver) a triggered pocket turned into a large sluff, carrying a skier through trees, resulting in a partial burial and injured knee (9,400, N facing). Toledo Chute was human triggered 1/2 way down, with the sluff entraining snow and widening to full width (SE 10,000'). And finally, a pocket (approx 50ft wide by 1.5 ft deep) triggered in a shallow, rocky spot on north facing Kessler resulted in a short ride."

Without looking at the weather stations I'd say you want to stay about about 8000ft due to the rain line being about 7500ft. Also with densities in the 10-15% range, its going to be pretty creamy. I'm still going to bring my fat ski's though. A great place to get a detail outlook on whats happening on the micro level with temps, snow accumulation, wind loading is as follows:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/slc/current/meso.slv.php if you back track a little you can find LOTS of info including snowtells, LCC/BCC forecasts and more. Everything you need to know.

These pictures represent the wrong places to ski today. Be safe! Soon I'll have some stories to add, promise.